impromptuz

“And mama I’ve been cryin’
Cause things ain’t how they used to be
She said the battles almost won
And we’re only several miles from the sun…”

“The Sun” is one of my favorite songs in my life – so surprised the lyrics only appeared once in this blog back in 2008!

原來Songs about Jane已經係2002既album (around form 1 or 2)
當年何小姐節衣宿食送了這張album 給我 as birthday present，好感動。（見圖）
絕對係the first few 我喜歡上的外國歌手/樂隊。
歌詞上都有唔少我唔識既英文字，要去查字典 .____.
例如The Sun呢隻歌既第三句，當年既我已經有3隻字唔識 @_@
“And I can smell hot asphalt, cars screech to a halt to let me pass” -_-

特別喜歡”The Sun”這首歌，好有意境畫面感
She said the battles almost won…and we’re only several miles from the sun...
完全係一個夕陽西下既setting，遠望著太陽慢慢落下。。感慨萬分個隻feeling。
真係好正！>w<”

呢首歌既interlude有一句歌詞我當年覺得好神級
（作者：嘩我竟然寫隻歌寫左成個post出黎，勁。）
hate to love and love to hate her….
嘩，兩個意思係一樣架！！~ hahahahaha

maroon 5 d歌同 jay chou d 歌都有個共同點
聽得多會悶，但耐唔耐煲下，令人精神抖摟。

以下都是很f10n1的なstyle。things i love to put around my table…hehehe

Songs of the day: 
Must Get Out – Maroon 5
趁早 – 張宇

• My new iphone 5s case!! Inspired by 海底撈 :D

• Working for residential you can rarely leave your office seat. Unlike office leasing you could always walk around interacting with prospects and tenants (evidence: i have almost never distributed by namecards here..=_=) Visited three show flats in a row – The Summa, DIVA and Double Cove Starview in IFC. Can instantly tell the difference in style between developers, quite distinctive in fact (CKH/SHKP = 金碧輝煌….Henderson = video lover….Kerry = similar to Swire, more ‘cool’ color tone) Double Cove is worth visiting, can put on 3D glasses to watch a 180-degree video!

• Went to Phoenix concert In AsiaWorld-Expo! (I.e. singer of “don’t you know I’m so tired of it all”) Went to their Boston concert alone before and so lucky they are now here in HK!! The ticket is…cough cough…780 HKD, no seat, all standing. The ticket says the starting time is at 7pm.. Stood there for 2 hours, then only sang from 9pm to 10.30pm lor. And those French dudes just started smoking Yee. Anyway, really high and YOLO XD

that i really have no time to write………..:(

長期糧尾中

倒數：還有9個星期就byebye！

Residential Mkt Forecast for 2014: drop 10-20%?? Mkt generally estimates home prices to drop 10-20% in 2014 because of a few factors.

•  Increased Housing Supply: After the Residential Properties (First-hand Sales) Ordinance implemented in 4.29.2013, there was a dormant period in Q2 and Q3 because developers were very, very cautious – a misrepresentation of info could now become a criminal offense..i.e. go into jail. A few key developers, especially for those with a weaker presence in China, failed to meet their sales target in 2013. Thanks to the accumulated purchasing power of HK end-users, mkt sentiment has improved recently as evidenced by the strong sales in both mass and prime mkt. So undoubtedly developers are much more aggressive this year re-starting their engines again. Lots of large-scale supply coming up in NT.
• Increased Land Supply – Policy Address: not much surprise from CY, again reiterated the importance of land supply in HK. The key 3 ways to boost short-medium housing supply are : re-zone re-zone re-zone GIC sites and Green Belt for residential use (this could be problematic if without proper density control),  PR relaxation (site area x PR = max. GFA) and arbitration of land premiums to speed up the agreement process.
• Developers want volume > price: Developers have been offering attractive discounts and stamp duty cash rebates to lure both end-users and investors to vs. competitors, absorbing a majority purchasing power from the secondary mkt. According to the news, these flats are priced near to, or even lower than the secondary mkt. Another incentive for developer is that, if you have sold everything in your development, you can officially “close file”. Otherwise, you still have to update the sales brochure every 3 months as required by the new Ordinance, that’s a huge investment of time and manpower.
• Continuation of gov’t cooling measures: gov’t believes these cooling measures, DSD x BSD x SSD and ‘HK land of HK people’ have successfully curb external, speculation and investment demand for homes in HK. No reason for gov’t to cancel something with impact.
• US tapering: interest rate is expected to rise, they said.

My view?

• Are developers really pricing near to the secondary mkt? Not really…I realized that the newspaper usually picked comparables that are not really “comparable”. It may be a huge gimmick that xyz ‘s new development is 5% lower than other second-hand apartments in the same district. But newspaper doesn’t really take “positioning” into consideration. I would say the price is reasonably priced, but not crazily cheap that would force second-hand owners to cut prices massively and sell before its too late!
• More land supply, cheaper land value, more land to be acquired land bank? Even value is reasonable, material cost, construction cost and manpower $$ could be astronomical. I.e. Selling price in the end will still be high.
• US tapering? The effect on the local mkt is still very uncertain. Not with immediate impact.
• And what is 10% anyway? 10% is a very conservative guess. Probably whatever happens this year you won’t be too far away from 10%. Not a “downturn” rate.
• So what’s my estimate? Virtually no change. 1) Home prices will change when second-home owners are willing to sell their flats at a discounted price. Did you see this from the agency shop windows? Why do they have to do it now? 2) Will developers really cut prices at a great discount? They don’t have to. In fact, from the “toothpaste” style of sale, they are raising prices each time, and still have no problem in clearing all the stocks…3) Demand is still good as many “家長客” are prevailing..i.e. buying flats for their young children/kids like us.   4) So, unless mortgage rate suddenly rise or an economic downturn hits la or LTV ratio limit changes la…otherwise same thing la. and after all, some developers don’t really care what’s happening out there …. (wink).