Day 39 – 想起晚上的約會 忘了白天的咖啡

雖然升升跌跌中間會有很多victims，
但還是volatile的market比較好玩，靜觀其變。

i really enjoy how highly dynamic and market-oriented my work environment is
…but 2 weeks left…
開始踩剎車掣，byebye。

one bad thing about job like this..
屋企自由活動時間得個兩個鐘，
頭都未乾就要瞓，仲要瞓得個五六個鐘。
（ibd的同學們不要打我哈哈，我知我已經係最嘆個個）

Day 38 – 計劃了解照做了得到了 時間卻太少

時日無多 我終敢偷懶.
個市比林峰更加chok… 

  • naturally typed Airlines VS HSR (high speed rail) as Airlines VS HSI (hang seng index),,,perfect illustration of my inner Course 1 VS Course 15 dilemma.
  •  “I dun freaking care. I’m rich  enough.” (response to investment loss)
  • “The SG gov. is very cautious on gov. spending so if you go to the toilet you will miss the whole firework show.” (response to ‘how’s the national day firework?’)
  • unprecedented half-day suspension of major index constituents trade =\ mkt movement is jus so unpredictable with all these time-bomb-like catalyst around. 誰有膽設想這世間下場？人人一把口一百種真相，誰說得漂亮。
  •  it would be fantastic if i could work in one more country and one more sector  before graduation (after 1. HK 2. Japan and 3. US)..only if opportunity knocks..or vice versa..?
  • would love to type 打中文.. Only  if I hv the time to do so. writing in MTR among the crowd is not as easy as I thought @-@

Day 37 – Boss: “Welcome to the real world, F10n1”

“HK suffers worst one day loss since 08′”

Lol “is it low enough to buy low?”I can’t believe the ans is no when I got up this morning – Blau

  • “好痛吖 (in cantonese)”, Korean colleague exclaimed. Equity market priced in too quickly in the morning, free fall dropped -1600 pts right away (followed US dismal performance), another -800 pts right before market close (sell on bounce to cash up).
  • 2008: bottom-up, financial institutions screwed up, gov can still bailout
    2011: top-down, even major govs are in huge debt, who would be the last resort lender? –>destruction of food chain
  •  Even central banks lost confidence. ECB intervention’s magnitude is small …same remedy proven not to work. but seems no better solution
  • Next wave: QE3? institutional redemption? More derisking? Time to bottom fish?
  • 感想：Start to love working side-by-side with sales..esp. with such momentum/volatility going on in the mkt. Dynamic, mkt-driven, noisy, interactive, lots of real-time conversations on mkt movement & breaking news (say 1/ China CPI,2/ land auction & 3/ greece/korean ban short selling today..and def. the roller coaster ride)

and one more comment from A :”I think you should be a carexpert after this internship” hahaha…After all..back to 101…market is really just a place for ppl to buy and sell..and supply demand/ ppl’s expectation determine the price (?!)  -end-

How lucky to have the chance witnessing such crisis (?)……..
my buddy asked us to wear in green tomorrow XD  (then my TWN colleague said green is the opposite in twn mkt..)

 

Last but not least…a closer look to Hotel Okura @ Galaxy Macau
the one room I paid (first time in my life) for dad mum bro =P

 

 

Day 36- “In fact, the downgrade doesn’t fking matter”

“The US, to my knowledge, owes no money in currency other than the US dollar, which it can print at will. Now if you’re talking about inflation, that’s a different question” – Warren Buffett 

(written on my way home with iPad…haha, no point-form sorry..and yes i have no life and am a very boring person..thank you)

Is it now low enough to “buy low” yet?.
To buy, or not to buy, this is the question.

3 weeks left. Tdy’s mkt is like a roller coaster ride. Thanks to S&P downgrade (which won’t hv much real material impact anyways) , weak US macro data (slow gdp growth & disappointing ISM) and their subsequent ripple effect on global mkt sentiment and panic oversold/ selloff (不理性拋售). Even with better-than-expected payroll/ unemployment data during strong Q2 reporting season didn’t help much. Was witnessing the extreme drop of HSI crashing straight down to ~20000 pts in the morning. Feel like I’m a part of the Wall Street movie sitting side by side with traders. What’s different from 2008 is that, there is no single substantial trigger this time. (back in 2008 was obviously Lehman collapse). It’s purely mkt sentiment driven by negative newsflow, uncertainty and global fear. What’s more is that US downgrade news has been around the corner for sometime already, so it should hv at least partially priced in? Or are there some cunning invisible hands manipulating the mkt in the dark with massive block trades?!

Anyway, after lunch.. things went better after ECB announced bond purchases of Italian/Spanish debts. ECB intervention has more or less temporarily relieved our major source of worries — saving Euro debt crisis from the verge of default. HSI then went back up like a symmetrical V shape. Luckily it didn’t go below 20k pt after all, so near though, was refreshing aastock (yes no bberg) every second when it went down to 20047, so close, so close.

My take? Though bearish I would expect some slight rebounce here and there this week…. if there is any fiscal announcements attempting to save the world from the financial turmoil.

Long-term? bad. time to look for master degree program…hahah..

Tomorrow?  還看今朝 US stocks…..

What to buy?
– Korean manufacturers,1/ Korean Won falls against USD (!) –> +ve for exporters 2/ ECB announcement came after mkt close, not yet priced in
– Domestic local retailers that hv no/ low US exposure
– Gold retailers for soaring gold price and high demand for gold s safe haven (116.hk , 590.hk)
– Macau casinos all outperformed mkt tdy (1928.hk), still a bit expensive to buy though

I really love my seat now, sitting between a HK boss and a Korean boss.  Could get mkt color right away by just simply leaving my left and right ears open. My HK boss is simply 型，and very friendly to answer my dumb questions haha, I really hope to 拜他為師!! (夢）

Another thing, RMB appreciated tdy– good news for me. USD will just go more and more gloomy, bad news for pegged HKD…its funny to see that on the same earth, merely after 10 hours of flight, just like daylight, one side of the world is in fear of recession, the other side is thinking all kind of tightening policies to calm down inflation.

Well, only if it could diffuse and saturate like Brownian motion across borders.

wah…after my first grad job written-test,
here comes my very first grab job interview! sadly i know nothing about FICC :/

sales = blow water convincingly…