Author: impromptuz

“HK suffers worst one day loss since 08′”

Lol “is it low enough to buy low?”I can’t believe the ans is no when I got up this morning – Blau

• “好痛吖 (in cantonese)”, Korean colleague exclaimed. Equity market priced in too quickly in the morning, free fall dropped -1600 pts right away (followed US dismal performance), another -800 pts right before market close (sell on bounce to cash up).
• 2008: bottom-up, financial institutions screwed up, gov can still bailout
  2011: top-down, even major govs are in huge debt, who would be the last resort lender? –>destruction of food chain
•  Even central banks lost confidence. ECB intervention’s magnitude is small …same remedy proven not to work. but seems no better solution
• Next wave: QE3? institutional redemption? More derisking? Time to bottom fish?
• 感想：Start to love working side-by-side with sales..esp. with such momentum/volatility going on in the mkt. Dynamic, mkt-driven, noisy, interactive, lots of real-time conversations on mkt movement & breaking news (say 1/ China CPI,2/ land auction & 3/ greece/korean ban short selling today..and def. the roller coaster ride)

and one more comment from A :”I think you should be a carexpert after this internship” hahaha…After all..back to 101…market is really just a place for ppl to buy and sell..and supply demand/ ppl’s expectation determine the price (?!)  -end-

How lucky to have the chance witnessing such crisis (?)……..
my buddy asked us to wear in green tomorrow XD  (then my TWN colleague said green is the opposite in twn mkt..)

 

Last but not least…a closer look to Hotel Okura @ Galaxy Macau
the one room I paid (first time in my life) for dad mum bro =P

 

 

“The US, to my knowledge, owes no money in currency other than the US dollar, which it can print at will. Now if you’re talking about inflation, that’s a different question” – Warren Buffett 

(written on my way home with iPad…haha, no point-form sorry..and yes i have no life and am a very boring person..thank you)

Is it now low enough to “buy low” yet?.
To buy, or not to buy, this is the question.

3 weeks left. Tdy’s mkt is like a roller coaster ride. Thanks to S&P downgrade (which won’t hv much real material impact anyways) , weak US macro data (slow gdp growth & disappointing ISM) and their subsequent ripple effect on global mkt sentiment and panic oversold/ selloff (不理性拋售). Even with better-than-expected payroll/ unemployment data during strong Q2 reporting season didn’t help much. Was witnessing the extreme drop of HSI crashing straight down to ~20000 pts in the morning. Feel like I’m a part of the Wall Street movie sitting side by side with traders. What’s different from 2008 is that, there is no single substantial trigger this time. (back in 2008 was obviously Lehman collapse). It’s purely mkt sentiment driven by negative newsflow, uncertainty and global fear. What’s more is that US downgrade news has been around the corner for sometime already, so it should hv at least partially priced in? Or are there some cunning invisible hands manipulating the mkt in the dark with massive block trades?!

Anyway, after lunch.. things went better after ECB announced bond purchases of Italian/Spanish debts. ECB intervention has more or less temporarily relieved our major source of worries — saving Euro debt crisis from the verge of default. HSI then went back up like a symmetrical V shape. Luckily it didn’t go below 20k pt after all, so near though, was refreshing aastock (yes no bberg) every second when it went down to 20047, so close, so close.

My take? Though bearish I would expect some slight rebounce here and there this week…. if there is any fiscal announcements attempting to save the world from the financial turmoil.

Long-term? bad. time to look for master degree program…hahah..

Tomorrow?  還看今朝 US stocks…..

What to buy?
– Korean manufacturers,1/ Korean Won falls against USD (!) –> +ve for exporters 2/ ECB announcement came after mkt close, not yet priced in
– Domestic local retailers that hv no/ low US exposure
– Gold retailers for soaring gold price and high demand for gold s safe haven (116.hk , 590.hk)
– Macau casinos all outperformed mkt tdy (1928.hk), still a bit expensive to buy though

I really love my seat now, sitting between a HK boss and a Korean boss.  Could get mkt color right away by just simply leaving my left and right ears open. My HK boss is simply 型，and very friendly to answer my dumb questions haha, I really hope to 拜他為師!! (夢）

Another thing, RMB appreciated tdy– good news for me. USD will just go more and more gloomy, bad news for pegged HKD…its funny to see that on the same earth, merely after 10 hours of flight, just like daylight, one side of the world is in fear of recession, the other side is thinking all kind of tightening policies to calm down inflation.

Well, only if it could diffuse and saturate like Brownian motion across borders.

wah…after my first grad job written-test,
here comes my very first grab job interview! sadly i know nothing about FICC :/

sales = blow water convincingly…

I will seek elegance rather than luxury; refinement rather than fashion. I will seek to be worthy more than respectable; wealthy and not rich. I will study hard, think quietly, talk gently and act frankly.  I will bear all things cheerfully, do all things bravely, await occasions and hurry never. In a word I will let the spiritual, unbidden and unconscious grow up through the common.

(0) 又食正日本野@Shun Sai Tomi ，整家餐廳都是百分百正宗nihonjin!旅行行きたいよ…~

(1) 第一次為grab job 出動。一早去了考試，90-min written test, 內容與我自己tip的差不多。盡力了，現場其他的candidates都比我老，越回想就覺得自己的logic錯錯地，唉。。anyways，越來越多各類型要靠自己的考驗。

(2) 下午跟哥哥 and 他以前consulting同事一起去做義工。原來中學以後很inactive in community service了（自責）。家訪了六戶的獨居公公婆婆，送禮物與聊天，很開心！還有不知道why我們兩兄妹常常被address為＂兩姊妹＂。哈哈

(3) 晚上去澳門。小妹豪請一家四口到新開張的galaxy豪住一晚哈哈。hotel okura 房間被upgrade了！反正d股票一定輸到humhum聲，唔怕賭埋哈哈。(result : intraday flat..haha)
note：壽仔uncle都有一起來，突然想起他的 gov tv ad VO: “夠啦，收手啦，沈迷賭博，等於倒錢落海。＂

(4) “S&P Move Isn’t a ShockBut Adds to Gloom”…. 終於連我自己都開始進入panic selling的行列。。早知一早就放啦…本來仲以為pass左debt ceiling deal就會一天光saai….第一次股票輸錢 @_@……….yeeeeeeeeee. 

Feel like I’m witnessing history today

• Sectors/Country products that I have touched/researched on in these 7 weeks:
  Countries — Hong Kong, China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, US, Malaysia, Singapore, Inner Mongolia, Thailand, India, Indonesia, Peru, Australia, Greece, France, Germany, Italy…
  Sectors — Cement, Jewelry, Solar power, Autos, Mining (gold, copper, silver), power plant, utilities, Oil, Hypermarket, dept stores, Food chain, fashion brands, exporters, banks, insurance, airlines / expressways/ railways, developers, infrastructure,  conglomerate..
  — 
• 振奮的偶遇：記得第二天上班就犯錯，singapore的country head用email回應：“baptism of fire! but I’m sure you will do very well!!” 從此我們間中會internal chat一下，聊聊internship的點滴，clarke quay與蘭貴坊，亞洲的炎夏。
  今天一位大概50多歲的老外經過，同事說他從singapore office飛來開會的。in line with 我的6th sense，果然就是他！立刻興奮跑上前握手，”Hi!!! I AM F10ni!!!” 從來沒有見過面，卻一見如故！開始雀躍地聊起來，大家都奇怪為甚麼我們會認識 (分隔兩地的最高級職員 VS 最低級職員 XD)。他跟老闆說在singapore都感覺到我為了把事情妥善做好而”sweating“。哈哈哈 anyways，最後竟然在同一分鐘寄了email給對方：“nice to MEET you!!”  好高興有緣見一面，感謝他一直對我的鼓勵！
  — 
•  西隧: 早上遲了起床，
  taxi哥哥：“西隧定紅隧？”
  我：“ 西隧啦我遲到啦就黎”
  taxi哥哥：“唔好啦！！唔好益jor班人渣！”
  （心想：gum你又問?!）
  我：“但我真係趕..”
  taxi哥哥：“好啦沒問題（普通話）”
  – 
• 開始不用看新聞因為things happen in realtime… 駐守現場直擊事發經過…
  – 
•  – bearish market 心情都差d，可能是氣氛問題。
  – 做sales的真諦：識少少，扮代表，tailor-made approach to satisfy your client’s request & investment style, ask the right question from experience!-