e.g. my view on samsonite
- Disclosure: Known for its durability and quality, the Luxembourg-brand is the only choice for the Ch’s family. but im not holding any of its shares coz i dun hv much liquidity left…-_-
- Asian Traveling:
(i) leisure travel /business trips are more and more common among Asians. Among the top 5 sales countries of Samsonite, 3 of them are Asian countries. (China, India & Korea). that’s why they chose to IPO in HK, even US is still their major market.
(ii) Just read the news that the Hong Kong Airport runways could no longer afford the rapid growth in travel demand ..further reclamation is necessary to build a third runway —> more luggage demand!!
(3) big trend: online travel agents like TripAdvisor are actively expanding their market shares in Asia as well - Luxury Goods?:
(1) just read from Roger Federer’s facebook fan page: “The Roger Federer of automobiles meets the Mercedes-Benz of tennis.” so is Samsonite the classiest brand in suitcases? Not really. Real senior executives would go for Tumi and our fellow Chinese rising rich/middle-class would go for the traditional LV or Prada
(2) and from what I have observed…mainlanders don’t really mind using cheap luggages. Unlike jewelery or handbags, its not something that you could always showcase/ show-off around.
(3) Black-Label: seems starting a “black label” is now a cliche must-do tactics in brand-building…I just passed by a Samsonite Black-Label store in 海運中心 last week….a small-size luggage costs almost $4000 HKD @_@ chiu din
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quantitative:
(1) fundamental analysis (long-term) — do DCF valuation by WACC/NPV
cons: difficult to estimate future cash flows
(2)technical analysis (short-term) — infer future price movement from historical trends and patterns
qualitative:
(1) management culture (read MD&A) and key people (is there frequent restructuring?)
(2) industry, nature, size, brand name
(3) products and service –vehicle to make profits
investing:
(1) value stocks– invest in undervalued high-quality stock with upward momentum backed by strong fundamentals
indicators: compare low PE, PEG<1
(2) growth stocks– young/expanding companies with high growth potential in future revenues
indicators: sales & EPS growth
(1+2) growth at a reasonable price (GARP)– values are somewhat in between of (1) and (2)
(3) Income — pick stock with high stable dividend yield to secure stable income
7 criterias — CAN SLIM:
- C = Current quarterly earnings per share – Earnings must be up at least 18-20%.
- A = Annual earnings per share – These figures should show meaningful growth for the last five years.
- N = New things – Buy companies with new products, new management, or significant new changes in industry conditions. Most importantly, buy stocks when they start to hit new price highs. Forget cheap stocks; they are that way for a reason.
- S = Shares outstanding – This should be a small and reasonable number. CAN SLIM investors are not looking for older companies with a large capitalization.
- L = Leaders – Buy market leaders, avoid laggards.
- I = Institutional sponsorship – Buy stocks with at least a few institutional sponsors who have better-than-average recent performance records.
- M = General market – The market will determine whether you win or lose, so learn how to discern the market’s overall current direction, and interpret the general market indexes (price and volume changes) and action of the individual market leaders.
—summarized from investopedia.
impromptuz 